Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Cavalry FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Forge's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Forge 1.20 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Cavalry FC, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Forge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Cavalry FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 49% versus Cavalry FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 54% | Cavalry FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.88 xG and Cavalry FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.032 / defence 0.944 | Cavalry FC attack 1.007 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Forge games / 28 Cavalry FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Forge 52% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Cavalry FC 4.35. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Forge 30% | Cavalry FC 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 31 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 52% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Forge 1.88 / Cavalry FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.032 / def 0.944 | Cavalry FC attack 1.007 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Forge (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cavalry FC xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Forge vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 31 May 2026 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Forge 1 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is Forge vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Cavalry FC part of?
Forge vs Cavalry FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 52% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Forge and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Record (8 meetings): Forge 1W | Draws 3 | Cavalry FC 4W.
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in?
Forge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Forge's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.86
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Forge xG
Total xG
3.09
1.21
Cavalry FC xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
3%
29.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Forge and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Forge and 1.21 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 61 games, going 32W 15D 14L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.67 PPG from 61 outings (27W 21D 13L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.82 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 20W 6D 5L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.48 points per game from 31 outings (12W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.56 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 62%.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 32W 15D 14L in their last 61 games (1.82 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 27W 21D 13L in their last 61 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Cavalry FC away?
Forge's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 2.13 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Forge or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Forge
3
Draws
5
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 2-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 45%, Cavalry FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Forge) and 52% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Forge's recent matches and 61% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Forge's recent games and 52% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Cavalry FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Cavalry FC 1-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.88 xG and Cavalry FC 1.21 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Forge fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 52% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 23%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 54%, Cavalry FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.82 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Forge (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.