Pacific FC 0-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, York United have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. York United are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Pacific FC, 4 for York United and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
York United in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 44% versus York United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | York United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.76 xG and York United 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.981 / defence 1.068 | York United attack 0.962 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Pacific FC games / 28 York United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | York United 27%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | York United 3.70. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form York United (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 70% | York United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | York United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Pacific FC 1.76 / York United 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.981 / def 1.068 | York United attack 0.962 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
York United xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 0 - 1 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 46% chance of winning, York United a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
Record (8 meetings): Pacific FC 2W | Draws 2 | York United 4W.
What form are Pacific FC and York United in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against York United's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.72
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.30
York United xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
5%
21.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.30 for York United, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 14W 15D 28L from 57 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 20L across 57 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.00 PPG, York United on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 10W 7D 11L from 28 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 7W 8D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 14W 15D 28L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while York United have gone 21W 16D 20L in their last 57 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.32 PPG; York United away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
3
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, York United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 43%, York United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Pacific FC) and 57% (York United).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pacific FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 61% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Pacific FC's recent games and 57% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and York United tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, York United in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Pacific FC 0-1 at Starlight Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.76 xG and York United 1.30 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against York United attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | York United 27%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, York United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.00 PPG, York United 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.