Valour 0-3 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacific FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valour vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Pacific FC travel to IG Field to take on Valour. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 July 2023, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Valour have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at IG Field, Valour have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pacific FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Pacific FC's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Valour's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Valour in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 52% versus Pacific FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valour 30% | Pacific FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 0.99 xG and Pacific FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.841 / defence 0.849 | Pacific FC attack 1.194 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.267. Data: 44 Valour games / 44 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 28% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Valour 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Pacific FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valour 50% | Pacific FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 28% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Valour 0.99 / Pacific FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.841 / def 0.849 | Pacific FC attack 1.194 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Pacific FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Pacific FC kick off?
Valour vs Pacific FC kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Valour 0 - 3 Pacific FC.
Where is Valour vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Pacific FC part of?
Valour vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 28% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Valour and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in?
Valour (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.84) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Valour's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
28%
3.54
29%
3.43
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Valour xG
Total xG
2.28
1.28
Pacific FC xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Valour and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Valour and 1.28 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Valour have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 14D 17L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC's form line: 18W 13D 13L from 44 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valour on 1.20 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 9W 5D 7L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Valour are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 13W 14D 17L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 18W 13D 13L in their last 44 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Pacific FC away?
Valour's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.62 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Valour or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Pacific FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valour's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, Pacific FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Pacific FC 1-4 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valour see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 43%, Pacific FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Valour and 38% for Pacific FC.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Pacific FC in 33%; Pacific FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Valour's recent matches and 43% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Valour's recent games and 38% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Pacific FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Valour 0-3 at IG Field, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.99 xG and Pacific FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Valour fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Pacific FC outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.84 / defence 0.85 against Pacific FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 28% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 43%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 30%, Pacific FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.20 PPG, Pacific FC 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.