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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Vitoria 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Vitoria 1-2 at Barradao, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.22 xG and Flamengo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Flamengo attack 1.14 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 37% | Draw 36% | Flamengo 27%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 50%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights