Vasco DA Gama 3-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 37%, yet in-form Fluminense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fluminense travel to Estádio do Maracanã to take on Vasco DA Gama in Serie A (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 March 2026 at 00:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vasco DA Gama stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Fluminense have recorded 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Fluminense have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fluminense are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Vasco DA Gama have won 3, Fluminense 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2025, ended Vasco DA Gama 2–0 Fluminense — a Vasco DA Gama win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Fluminense trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 49% versus Fluminense 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 53% | Fluminense 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.22 xG and Fluminense 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.989 / defence 1.048 | Fluminense attack 1.028 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.122. Data: built from Vasco DA Gama's last 44 games and Fluminense's last 44.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 37% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 36%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.73 | Draw 3.64 | Fluminense 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Vasco DA Gama's last 10 home games and Fluminense's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Vasco DA Gama 60% (last 10 home games) | Fluminense 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, matchday 7 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Thursday 19 March 2026 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 37% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.22 / Fluminense 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.989 / def 1.048 | Fluminense attack 1.028 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fluminense xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense FAQs
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Thursday 19 March 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Vasco DA Gama 3 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense is a Serie A fixture (matchday 7) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 37% chance of winning, Fluminense a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 0.99x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vasco DA Gama's last 44 games and Fluminense's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.64
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.43
1.21
Fluminense xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.21 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Vasco DA Gama have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 27W 14D 35L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 31W 17D 28L from 76 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.25 PPG, Fluminense on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasco DA Gama have posted 1.66 PPG from their last 38 home games (18W 9D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 9W 8D 21L from their last 38 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.09 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama (Home) vs Fluminense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense Form FAQs
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 27W 14D 35L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 31W 17D 28L in their last 76 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Fluminense away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.66 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Fluminense in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, Fluminense have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Fluminense 1-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 53%, Fluminense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasco DA Gama) and 32% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; Fluminense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 32% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 58% of Fluminense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Fluminense 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Fluminense 3-2 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.22 xG and Fluminense 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Fluminense attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 37% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 36%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Fluminense 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG, Fluminense 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.