Flamengo 3-0 Remo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Remo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Remo travel to Estádio do Maracanã to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 March 2026, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Flamengo have posted 7W 3D 0L at Estádio do Maracanã — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Flamengo are significantly better at Estádio do Maracanã than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 2.10 xG and Remo 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.119 / defence 0.790 | Remo attack 0.863 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.125. Remo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Flamengo games / 6 Remo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 68% | Draw 19% | Remo 13%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Remo 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Mar 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 68% | Draw 19% | Remo 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 47% | xG Flamengo 2.10 / Remo 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.119 / def 0.790 | Remo attack 0.863 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Remo xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Remo kick off?
Flamengo vs Remo kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 19 March 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Remo?
Flamengo 3 - 0 Remo.
Where is Flamengo vs Remo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Remo part of?
Flamengo vs Remo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 68% chance of winning, Remo a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Flamengo and Remo will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Remo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Remo in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Flamengo home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Remo's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. The same calculation in reverse, Remo's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.18
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.86
0.77
Remo xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
2%
64.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.77 for Remo, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Remo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Pre-Season
Remo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Flamengo
0
Draws
0
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Remo?
From 1 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 1, Remo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Remo last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Flamengo 3-0 Remo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Remo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Remo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Remo 3-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.10 xG and Remo 0.77 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.12 / defence 0.79 against Remo attack 0.86 / defence 1.28, drawn from 43/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 68% | Draw 19% | Remo 13%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.