Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 52%, yet in-form Botafogo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Botafogo at Estádio São Januário in Serie A (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 01:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Vasco DA Gama have gone 3W 0D 7L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Vasco DA Gama have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Botafogo — last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Botafogo's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Botafogo — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Botafogo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Vasco DA Gama.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2025, ended Vasco DA Gama 0–3 Botafogo — a Botafogo win.
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 49% versus Botafogo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 53% | Botafogo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.99 xG and Botafogo 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.094 / defence 1.133 | Botafogo attack 1.169 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.037. Data: built from Vasco DA Gama's last 47 games and Botafogo's last 46.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 22% | Botafogo 26%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.93 | Draw 4.52 | Botafogo 3.81. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.99 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Botafogo (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vasco DA Gama's last 10 home games and Botafogo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Vasco DA Gama 60% (last 10 home games) | Botafogo 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 10 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 22% | Botafogo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.99 / Botafogo 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.094 / def 1.133 | Botafogo attack 1.169 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Botafogo xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo FAQs
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 2 Botafogo.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 10) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 52% chance of winning, Botafogo a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (1.09) and Botafogo's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vasco DA Gama's last 47 games and Botafogo's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
52%
1.93
22%
4.52
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
3.36
1.37
Botafogo xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
4%
27.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.37 for Botafogo, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 14D 35L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.87 PPG from 76 outings (40W 22D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Botafogo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 18W 9D 11L across their last 38 home games, a 1.66 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.66 points per game from their last 38 away games (17W 12D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.54 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama (Home) vs Botafogo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo Form FAQs
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 27W 14D 35L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 40W 22D 14L in their last 76 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Botafogo away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.66 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Botafogo in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 7 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2024, when Botafogo won Botafogo 3-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
5
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, Botafogo have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 October 2026: Botafogo 1-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 53%, Botafogo 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasco DA Gama) and 32% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo in 47%; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; Botafogo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 37% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 32% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 55% of Botafogo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Botafogo defy the odds to beat Vasco DA Gama 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Vasco DA Gama 1-2 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.99 xG and Botafogo 1.37 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Botafogo attack 1.17 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 52% | Draw 22% | Botafogo 26%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Botafogo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.