Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bahia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Palmeiras travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026, 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bahia) versus 1.50 (Palmeiras). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bahia, 4 for Palmeiras and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Bahia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus Palmeiras 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 51% | Palmeiras 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.42 xG and Palmeiras 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.062 / defence 0.783 | Palmeiras attack 1.284 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.041. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — the away xG of 1.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Bahia's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Bahia games / 47 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 45% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 27%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Palmeiras 3.70. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 30% | Palmeiras 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 45% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Bahia 1.42 / Palmeiras 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.062 / def 0.783 | Palmeiras attack 1.284 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Bahia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Palmeiras xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Palmeiras kick off?
Bahia vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Bahia 1 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Bahia vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Palmeiras part of?
Bahia vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 45% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bahia and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Palmeiras?
Record (8 meetings): Bahia 3W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 4W.
What form are Bahia and Palmeiras in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bahia's attack at 1.06x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.60
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.47
1.05
Palmeiras xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Bahia and 1.05 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 32W 17D 27L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 45W 14D 17L from 76 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bahia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bahia have posted 2.13 PPG from 38 outings (25W 6D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 21W 7D 10L from 38 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bahia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.66 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Palmeiras away?
Bahia's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.13 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Bahia or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bahia's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Bahia
1
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Palmeiras have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 42%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bahia) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Palmeiras in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bahia's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bahia's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palmeiras defy the odds to beat Bahia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Bahia 1-2 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.42 xG and Palmeiras 1.05 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.06 / defence 0.78 against Palmeiras attack 1.28 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 45% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 27%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, Palmeiras 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.