Mirassol 0-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Mirassol (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mirassol have posted 7W 3D 0L at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
RB Bragantino's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Mirassol's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mirassol have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, RB Bragantino in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Mirassol 0W, RB Bragantino 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 58% versus RB Bragantino 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 47% | RB Bragantino 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.62 xG and RB Bragantino 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.017 / defence 1.091 | RB Bragantino attack 0.807 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.049. Data: 46 Mirassol games / 47 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 53% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 21%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | RB Bragantino 4.76. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mirassol 60% | RB Bragantino 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 53% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Mirassol 1.62 / RB Bragantino 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.017 / def 1.091 | RB Bragantino attack 0.807 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.92
RB Bragantino xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Mirassol vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs RB Bragantino?
Mirassol 0 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Mirassol vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs RB Bragantino part of?
Mirassol vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 53% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mirassol and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and RB Bragantino?
Record (2 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are Mirassol and RB Bragantino in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mirassol's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.81x) against Mirassol's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
53%
1.87
25%
3.95
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.54
0.92
RB Bragantino xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
4%
23.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Mirassol and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.92 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Mirassol have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 18W 13D 7L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 14W 6D 18L from 38 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Mirassol are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RB Bragantino.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mirassol have posted 2.26 PPG from 19 outings (12W 7D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 5W 2D 12L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mirassol are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.18 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 14W 6D 18L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or RB Bragantino away?
Mirassol's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.26 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mirassol have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Mirassol
1
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and RB Bragantino?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Mirassol 0-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Mirassol, 63% for RB Bragantino — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Mirassol and 58% for RB Bragantino. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mirassol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mirassol's games and 63% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Mirassol's matches and 58% of RB Bragantino's.
Do Mirassol and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RB Bragantino defy the odds to beat Mirassol 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Mirassol 0-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.62 xG and RB Bragantino 0.92 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mirassol fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against RB Bragantino attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 53% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 21%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a RB Bragantino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, RB Bragantino 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with RB Bragantino winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.