🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Sport Recife 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat Sport Recife 1-2 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.08 xG and Palmeiras 1.14 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Palmeiras attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 30% | Draw 36% | Palmeiras 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights