Sport Recife 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Sport Recife take on Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sport Recife and Palmeiras meet at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sport Recife, 2 for Palmeiras and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 1.08 xG and Palmeiras 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Palmeiras attack 1.122 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.881. Data: 1 Sport Recife games / 39 Palmeiras games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 30% | Draw 36% | Palmeiras 33%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Palmeiras 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 30% | Draw 36% | Palmeiras 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 49% | xG Sport Recife 1.08 / Palmeiras 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Palmeiras attack 1.122 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.361 / away 0.881 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Palmeiras xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Palmeiras kick off?
Sport Recife vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?
Sport Recife 1 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Sport Recife vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Palmeiras part of?
Sport Recife vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 30% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sport Recife and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Palmeiras?
Record (2 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Sport Recife and Palmeiras in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Palmeiras away split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sport Recife's attack rating (0.86) and Palmeiras's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.12x) against Sport Recife's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.30
36%
2.74
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.22
1.14
Palmeiras xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.14 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sport Recife have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
0
Draws
4
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Palmeiras?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Palmeiras have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Palmeiras 3-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Sport Recife 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Sport Recife 1-2 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.08 xG and Palmeiras 1.14 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Palmeiras attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 30% | Draw 36% | Palmeiras 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.