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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Sport Recife 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Sport Recife 1-2 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.21 xG and Mirassol 1.25 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.83 / defence 1.31 against Mirassol attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 35% | Draw 27% | Mirassol 37%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 43%, Mirassol 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Mirassol's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.61. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights