Sport Recife 1-2 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sport Recife vs Mirassol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 30 as Sport Recife welcome Mirassol to Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 October 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sport Recife have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sport Recife's home record at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mirassol are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sport Recife, 1 for Mirassol and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Mirassol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Mirassol in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 50% versus Mirassol 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sport Recife 43% | Mirassol 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 1.21 xG and Mirassol 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.828 / defence 1.311 | Mirassol attack 0.976 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 0.976. Data: 28 Sport Recife games / 29 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 35% | Draw 27% | Mirassol 37%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Mirassol 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mirassol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sport Recife 60% | Mirassol 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 35% | Draw 27% | Mirassol 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Sport Recife 1.21 / Mirassol 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.828 / def 1.311 | Mirassol attack 0.976 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.430 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Mirassol xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Mirassol kick off?
Sport Recife vs Mirassol kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Mirassol?
Sport Recife 1 - 2 Mirassol.
Where is Sport Recife vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Mirassol part of?
Sport Recife vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 35% chance of winning, Mirassol a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sport Recife and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Mirassol?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 0 | Mirassol 1W.
What form are Sport Recife and Mirassol in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Mirassol (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sport Recife's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Mirassol's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
35%
2.82
27%
3.67
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.46
1.25
Mirassol xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.25 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sport Recife come into this having played 28 games, going 2W 11D 15L for 0.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (14W 10D 4L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Mirassol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sport Recife's home form reads 1W 7D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.31 points per game from 13 outings (4W 5D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sport Recife are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Current Season
Mirassol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 2W 11D 15L in their last 28 games (0.61 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 14W 10D 4L in their last 28 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Mirassol away?
Mirassol's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.77 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sport Recife and Mirassol runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
0
Draws
2
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Mirassol?
From 2 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Mirassol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Sport Recife 1-2 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sport Recife 54%, Mirassol 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sport Recife) and 31% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Mirassol in 31%; Sport Recife have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 46% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sport Recife's recent games and 31% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Mirassol tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Sport Recife 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Sport Recife 1-2 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.21 xG and Mirassol 1.25 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.83 / defence 1.31 against Mirassol attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 35% | Draw 27% | Mirassol 37%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 43%, Mirassol 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Mirassol's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.61. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.