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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Sat 25 Oct 2025

22:30

Venue

Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Mirassol Win

35%

Sport Recife

2.82

27%

Draw

3.67

37%

Mirassol

2.68

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.9%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.7%

Away win

1 – 0

10.4%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.21

Sport Recife xG

Total xG

2.46

1.25

Mirassol xG

35%
27%
37%
Sport RecifeDrawMirassol

2.82

35%

Home win

3.67

27%

Draw

2.68

37%

Away win

Goals Markets

70%

Over 1.5

1.43

30%

Under 1.5

3.33

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

23%

Over 3.5

4.35

77%

Under 3.5

1.30

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.00

50%

BTTS No

2.00

Clean Sheet

29%

Sport Recife

3.48

30%

Mirassol

3.36

Win to Nil

10%

Sport Recife

9.82

11%

Mirassol

9.01

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.6 10.7 6.7 2.8 0.9 0.2
1 10.4 12.9 8.1 3.4 1.0 0.3
2 6.3 7.8 4.9 2.0 0.6 0.2
3 2.5 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.211
λ Away (xG) 1.248
Total xG 2.459
League avg home goals 1.430
League avg away goals 0.976
Sport Recife attack strength 0.828
Sport Recife defence strength 1.311
Mirassol attack strength 0.976
Mirassol defence strength 1.023
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 28 / 29