Sport Recife 0-0 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Sport Recife take on Fortaleza EC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 6 as Sport Recife welcome Fortaleza EC to Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fortaleza EC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sport Recife, 2 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 1.07 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.714 / defence 1.219 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.025 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 0.910. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Sport Recife games / 43 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 31% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 34%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Fortaleza EC 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 31% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Sport Recife 1.07 / Fortaleza EC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.714 / def 1.219 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.025 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.445 / away 0.910 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Fortaleza EC xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Sport Recife 0 - 0 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 31% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC?
Record (2 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 2W.
What form are Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Fortaleza EC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sport Recife's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Fortaleza EC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.28
35%
2.83
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.20
1.14
Fortaleza EC xG
3.28
31%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sport Recife and 1.14 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sport Recife's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
1
Draws
3
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Fortaleza EC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Sport Recife's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 1.07 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sport Recife fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Fortaleza EC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.71 / defence 1.22 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 31% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.