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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Atletico-MG (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico-MG have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.79 xG and Atletico-MG 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.114 / defence 1.150 | Atletico-MG attack 0.854 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 0.894. Data: 5 Mirassol games / 43 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 57% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 16%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico-MG 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Atletico-MG (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W • Atletico-MG away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | CS 2
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 57% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Mirassol 1.79 / Atletico-MG 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.114 / def 1.150 | Atletico-MG attack 0.854 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.446 / away 0.894 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Atletico-MG xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Mirassol 2 - 2 Atletico-MG.
Where is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG part of?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 57% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mirassol and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Mirassol and Atletico-MG in?
• Atletico-MG (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W • Atletico-MG away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | CS 2
What do the betting odds say about Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture