🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Internacional (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Internacional face Juventude.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 6 as Internacional welcome Juventude to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Internacional have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Internacional at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Juventude's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Internacional have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

Internacional hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Juventude, with 1 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with Internacional winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Internacional and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Internacional trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Juventude trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Internacional 55% and Juventude 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 45% | Juventude 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 2.25 xG and Juventude 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.079 / defence 0.874 | Juventude attack 0.870 / defence 1.448. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.890. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.448 — this is suppressing Internacional's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Internacional games / 43 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Internacional 71% | Draw 21% | Juventude 8%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.41 | Draw 4.76 | Juventude 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Internacional (71%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Internacional at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Internacional 40% | Juventude 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights