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Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Sport Recife 1-5 at Arena Pernambuco, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.89 xG and Flamengo 2.06 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 2.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.80 / defence 1.65 against Flamengo attack 1.26 / defence 0.79, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 15% | Draw 20% | Flamengo 65%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 47%, Flamengo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sport Recife's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Flamengo's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.53. That form edge translated into the three points. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights