Sport Recife 1-5 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sport Recife face Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Arena Pernambuco to face Sport Recife in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 November 2025 at 21:30 UTC.
Form
Sport Recife (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sport Recife's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Arena Pernambuco this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Sport Recife are significantly better at Arena Pernambuco than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Flamengo are 1.50 PPG clear of Sport Recife in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sport Recife, 2 for Flamengo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sport Recife — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Flamengo — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 50% versus Flamengo 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sport Recife 47% | Flamengo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.89 xG and Flamengo 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.803 / defence 1.647 | Flamengo attack 1.260 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 0.993. Flamengo's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Sport Recife games / 70 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 15% | Draw 20% | Flamengo 65%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | Flamengo 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 70% | Flamengo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena Pernambuco • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Nov 2025, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 15% | Draw 20% | Flamengo 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG Sport Recife 0.89 / Flamengo 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.803 / def 1.647 | Flamengo attack 1.260 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.394 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Flamengo xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Flamengo kick off?
Sport Recife vs Flamengo kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 15 November 2025 at Arena Pernambuco.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Flamengo?
Sport Recife 1 - 5 Flamengo.
Where is Sport Recife vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pernambuco.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Flamengo part of?
Sport Recife vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 15% chance of winning, Flamengo a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sport Recife and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Flamengo?
Record (3 meetings): Sport Recife 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Sport Recife and Flamengo in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.80x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.26x) against Sport Recife's defence (1.65x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
15%
6.58
20%
4.95
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
2.95
2.06
Flamengo xG
6.58
15%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
13%
7.85
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
2%
51.67
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Sport Recife and 2.06 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sport Recife's recent record stands at 2W 11D 19L from 32 games, a 0.53 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 4L across 32 games — 2.12 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 1.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sport Recife heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sport Recife have managed 1W 7D 7L from 15 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 8W 3D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sport Recife are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 2.00 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 2W 11D 19L in their last 32 games (0.53 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 20W 8D 4L in their last 32 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.67 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Flamengo in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 1-5 on 15 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sport Recife have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
1
Draws
3
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Flamengo?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Flamengo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 15 November 2025, when Sport Recife 1-5 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sport Recife 53%, Flamengo 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sport Recife) and 47% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 33%; Sport Recife have failed to score in 40% of games; Flamengo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 47% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sport Recife's recent games and 47% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Flamengo tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Sport Recife.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Sport Recife 1-5 at Arena Pernambuco, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.89 xG and Flamengo 2.06 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 2.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.80 / defence 1.65 against Flamengo attack 1.26 / defence 0.79, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 15% | Draw 20% | Flamengo 65%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 47%, Flamengo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.53. That form edge translated into the three points. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.