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Dominant Cruzeiro run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cruzeiro beat Sport Recife 0-4 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.95 xG and Cruzeiro 0.79 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Sport Recife fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cruzeiro outscored their 0.79 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.65 / defence 1.11 against Cruzeiro attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 37% | Draw 35% | Cruzeiro 28%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cruzeiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights