Santos 2-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Santos at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vasco DA Gama travel to Estádio Urbano Caldeira to take on Santos in Serie A (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 February 2026 at 22:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Santos stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Santos's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Vasco DA Gama — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Santos are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Santos, 2 for Vasco DA Gama and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended Santos 0–6 Vasco DA Gama — a Vasco DA Gama win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Santos trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 47% versus Vasco DA Gama 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 50% | Vasco DA Gama 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.55 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.943 / defence 0.904 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.958 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.148. Data: built from Santos's last 41 games and Vasco DA Gama's last 41.
Result probabilities: Santos 50% | Draw 25% | Vasco DA Gama 24%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.99 | Draw 3.93 | Vasco DA Gama 4.13. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Santos as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Santos 40% (last 10 home games) | Vasco DA Gama 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Thursday 26 February 2026 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 50% | Draw 25% | Vasco DA Gama 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Santos 1.55 / Vasco DA Gama 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.943 / def 0.904 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.958 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Santos (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Vasco DA Gama xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Santos vs Vasco DA Gama FAQs
What time does Santos vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Santos vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Thursday 26 February 2026 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
Santos 2 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Santos vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Santos vs Vasco DA Gama is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 50% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Santos and Vasco DA Gama will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Santos vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Santos's attack rating (0.94) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Santos's last 41 games and Vasco DA Gama's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
50%
1.99
25%
3.93
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Santos xG
Total xG
2.55
0.99
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Santos vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Santos and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Santos and 0.99 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santos's recent record stands at 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 19L across 38 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santos on 1.24 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Santos have managed 8W 6D 5L from their last 19 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 5W 2D 12L across their last 19 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Santos are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.45 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Santos (Home) vs Vasco DA Gama (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Santos
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Santos vs Vasco DA Gama Form FAQs
What form are Santos and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 13W 6D 19L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Santos's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.58 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Santos have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2025, when Vasco DA Gama won Santos 0-6 Vasco DA Gama.
Santos's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Santos
0
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Santos vs Vasco DA Gama H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Vasco DA Gama?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Santos have won 4, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Vasco DA Gama 0-3 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Vasco DA Gama?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santos see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 42%, Vasco DA Gama 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Santos) and 63% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Santos have failed to score in 26% of games; Vasco DA Gama in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Santos vs Vasco DA Gama Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Santos and Vasco DA Gama matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Santos's recent matches and 42% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Santos and Vasco DA Gama matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Santos's recent games and 63% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Vasco DA Gama matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Santos's recent matches and 79% of Vasco DA Gama's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Santos edge out Vasco DA Gama 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Vasco DA Gama 2-1 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.55 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.99 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 50% | Draw 25% | Vasco DA Gama 24%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 50%, Vasco DA Gama 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.24 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.