Poisson rates Bahia at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova plays host to Bahia versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 17 July 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Market Odds
Bahia are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Bahia 1.42 (66%) | Draw 4.71 (20%) | Chapecoense-sc 6.78 (14%).
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chapecoense-sc's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0W 2D 6L from 8 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bahia. A 1.00 PPG lead over Chapecoense-sc (1.20 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bahia lead 3W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 10 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Chapecoense-sc winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Stats
Across 17 matches this season, Bahia have gone 7W 5D 5L. Attacking returns: 1.5 goals per game; defensive: 1.4 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 4 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 17 games (6%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
On the season-wide numbers, Chapecoense-sc show 1W 6D 10L from 17 outings in Serie A. Attacking returns: 1.0 goals per game; defensive: 1.9 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-2 (H) / – (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 2-0 (A). Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 1 clean sheet this season (1 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Bahia have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 1.50 per game versus 1.00 for the visitors. Bahia have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.40 per game against Chapecoense-sc's 1.90. Bahia lead on clean sheets this season (4 vs 1). Penalty activity: Bahia 3/3 vs Chapecoense-sc 2/2 this season.
Where They Stand
The standings have Bahia (6th, 26 pts) 14 places above Chapecoense-sc (20th, 9 pts) — a 17-point gap in Serie A.
On home turf, Bahia's Serie A record reads 3W 4D 2L this term. Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 2D 6L on their travels. Bahia: Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage). Chapecoense-sc: Relegation - Serie B.
Trading & In-Play
Bahia — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Chapecoense-sc — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bahia 71% and Chapecoense-sc 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 59% | Chapecoense-sc 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.71 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.039 / defence 1.008 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.697 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.112. Data: 55 Bahia games / 17 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 59% | Draw 24% | Chapecoense-sc 17%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Chapecoense-sc 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 1.42 (fair-implied 66% vs Poisson 59%). Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting. The market (2.31, fair-implied 41%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bahia 70% | Chapecoense-sc 50% from recent games — a notable divergence. Market pricing (1.96, fair-implied 48%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jul 2026, 22:30 UTC • Managers: Bahia (Rogério Ceni) | Chapecoense-sc (Gilmar Dall Pozzo) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Bahia 3W | Draws 4 | Chapecoense-sc 3W • Goals trend: 1.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Bahia 10 – 8 Chapecoense-sc • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 20% | Win rates: Bahia 30% / Draw 40% / Chapecoense-sc 30% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 59% / draw 24% / away 17% • Goals: H2H average 1.80/game (20% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.49 (45% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 44% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Bahia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W • Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L • Bahia home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • Chapecoense-sc away split: 0.25 PPG from 8 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.62 | CS 0 • Form edge: Bahia lead by 1.00 PPG (1.20 vs 0.20) • xG vs form (Bahia): Poisson xG of 1.71 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.60 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Chapecoense-sc): Poisson projects 0.78 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.50 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.7 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.49 (45% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 44% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Bahia — Bahia at 59% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 59% | Draw 24% | Chapecoense-sc 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Bahia 1.71 / Chapecoense-sc 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.039 / def 1.008 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.697 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Bahia (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Bahia 1.42 (impl 66%) | Draw 4.71 (impl 20%) | Chapecoense-sc 6.78 (impl 14%) • Market favourite: Bahia at 1.42 • Poisson vs market alignment: both point to Bahia — Poisson 59% vs market implied 66% — tight pricing suggests an efficient market; no meaningful edge detected • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.58 (impl 63%) / Under 2.5 2.31 (impl 43%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 45% • Goals: Poisson rates Over 2.5 at 45% vs the market's fair-implied 59% (14pp gap) — the model sees Over 2.5 as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.78 (impl 56%) / No 1.96 (impl 51%) | Poisson BTTS probability 44% • BTTS: Poisson rates Yes at 44% vs the market's fair-implied 52% (8pp gap) — the model sees BTTS Yes as less likely than the market's pricing reflects.
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Chapecoense-sc xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc is scheduled to kick off at 22:30 on Friday 17 July 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
Where is Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 59% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bahia and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Chapecoense-sc?
• Record (10 meetings): Bahia 3W | Draws 4 | Chapecoense-sc 3W • Goals trend: 1.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Bahia 10 – 8 Chapecoense-sc • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 20% | Win rates: Bahia 30% / Draw 40% / Chapecoense-sc 30% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 59% / draw 24% / away 17% • Goals: H2H average 1.80/game (20% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.49 (45% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 44% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Bahia and Chapecoense-sc in?
• Bahia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W • Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L • Bahia home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • Chapecoense-sc away split: 0.25 PPG from 8 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.62 | CS 0 • Form edge: Bahia lead by 1.00 PPG (1.20 vs 0.20) • xG vs form (Bahia): Poisson xG of 1.71 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.60 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Chapecoense-sc): Poisson projects 0.78 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.50 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~1.7 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.49 (45% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 44% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Bahia — Bahia at 59% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
• 1X2 market: Bahia 1.42 (impl 66%) | Draw 4.71 (impl 20%) | Chapecoense-sc 6.78 (impl 14%) • Market favourite: Bahia at 1.42 • Poisson vs market alignment: both point to Bahia — Poisson 59% vs market implied 66% — tight pricing suggests an efficient market; no meaningful edge detected • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.58 (impl 63%) / Under 2.5 2.31 (impl 43%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 45% • Goals: Poisson rates Over 2.5 at 45% vs the market's fair-implied 59% (14pp gap) — the model sees Over 2.5 as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.78 (impl 56%) / No 1.96 (impl 51%) | Poisson BTTS probability 44% • BTTS: Poisson rates Yes at 44% vs the market's fair-implied 52% (8pp gap) — the model sees BTTS Yes as less likely than the market's pricing reflects.