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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Santos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santos and Ceara finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.67 xG and Ceara 1.00 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Santos fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Ceara landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.98 / defence 1.26 against Ceara attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santos 53% | Draw 25% | Ceara 22%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights