Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Santos at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santos host Ceara at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Santos haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Santos have posted 3W 3D 4L at Allianz Parque — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Santos, 1 for Ceara and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Ceara winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.67 xG and Ceara 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.982 / defence 1.258 | Ceara attack 0.921 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 0.861. Data: 7 Santos games / 7 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 53% | Draw 25% | Ceara 22%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Ceara 4.55. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santos at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): Santos 1W | Draws 2 | Ceara 1W • Goals trend: 1.75 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Santos 4 – 3 Ceara • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Santos 25% / Draw 50% / Ceara 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 53% / draw 25% / away 22% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 1.75 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.67 (50% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Santos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L • Santos home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | CS 2
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 53% | Draw 25% | Ceara 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Santos 1.67 / Ceara 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.982 / def 1.258 | Ceara attack 0.921 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.438 / away 0.861 • Poisson stance: Santos (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ceara xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Ceara kick off?
Santos vs Ceara kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Santos vs Ceara?
Santos 0 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Santos vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Santos vs Ceara part of?
Santos vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 53% chance of winning, Ceara a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Santos and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Ceara?
• Record (4 meetings): Santos 1W | Draws 2 | Ceara 1W • Goals trend: 1.75 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Santos 4 – 3 Ceara • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Santos 25% / Draw 50% / Ceara 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 53% / draw 25% / away 22% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 1.75 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.67 (50% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Santos and Ceara in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Santos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L • Santos home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | CS 2
What do the betting odds say about Santos vs Ceara?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture