Santos 0-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Santos face Ceara.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santos host Ceara at Allianz Parque in Serie A (matchday 8). Kick-off is Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 01:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Santos have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Santos have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Santos, 1 for Ceara and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 10 Sep 2022, ended Santos 1–2 Ceara — a Ceara win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.67 xG and Ceara 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.982 / defence 1.258 | Ceara attack 0.921 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 0.861. Santos's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ceara's projected output up. Data: built from Santos's last 7 games and Ceara's last 7.
Result probabilities: Santos 53% | Draw 25% | Ceara 22%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.90 | Draw 3.98 | Ceara 4.52. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santos at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, matchday 8 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 53% | Draw 25% | Ceara 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Santos 1.67 / Ceara 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.982 / def 1.258 | Ceara attack 0.921 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.438 / away 0.861 • Poisson stance: Santos (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ceara xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Santos vs Ceara FAQs
What time does Santos vs Ceara kick off?
Santos vs Ceara kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Santos vs Ceara?
Santos 0 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Santos vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Santos vs Ceara part of?
Santos vs Ceara is a Serie A fixture (matchday 8) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 53% chance of winning, Ceara a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Santos and Ceara will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Santos vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Santos's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Ceara's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Santos's last 7 games and Ceara's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
53%
1.90
25%
3.98
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Santos xG
Total xG
2.67
1.00
Ceara xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
4%
24.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Santos vs Ceara Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Santos and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Santos and 1.00 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Pre-Season
Ceara
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Santos (Home) vs Ceara (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Santos
Pre-Season
Ceara
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 6 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Oct 2025, when Ceara won Ceara 3-0 Santos.
Santos's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Santos
3
Draws
2
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Santos vs Ceara H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Ceara?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Santos have won 1, Ceara have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Ceara last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 October 2025: Ceara 3-0 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Ceara?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Santos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos and Ceara finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.67 xG and Ceara 1.00 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Santos fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Ceara landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.98 / defence 1.26 against Ceara attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 53% | Draw 25% | Ceara 22%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.