Remo 2-2 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Remo at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Remo face Mirassol.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Remo and Mirassol meet at Estádio Banpará Baenão in Serie A (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 4 February 2026 at 23:00 UK time.
Current Form
Mirassol (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mirassol away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.18 xG and Mirassol 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.862 / defence 1.150 | Mirassol attack 0.996 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.029. Data: built from Remo's last 1 games and Mirassol's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Remo 36% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 36%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.77 | Draw 3.58 | Mirassol 2.78. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Remo 36% and Mirassol 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Remo 1 games, Mirassol 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, matchday 2 | Venue: Estádio Banpará Baenão • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 February 2026 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 36% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Remo 1.18 / Mirassol 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.862 / def 1.150 | Mirassol attack 0.996 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Remo and Mirassol level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Mirassol xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Remo vs Mirassol FAQs
What time does Remo vs Mirassol kick off?
Remo vs Mirassol kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Wednesday 4 February 2026 at Estádio Banpará Baenão.
What was the final score in Remo vs Mirassol?
Remo 2 - 2 Mirassol.
Where is Remo vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Banpará Baenão.
What competition is Remo vs Mirassol part of?
Remo vs Mirassol is a Serie A fixture (matchday 2) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 36% chance of winning, Mirassol a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Remo and Mirassol will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Remo vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Remo's attack rating (0.86) and Mirassol's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (1.00x) against Remo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Remo's last 1 games and Mirassol's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.58
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Remo xG
Total xG
2.36
1.18
Mirassol xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Remo vs Mirassol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Remo and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Remo and 1.18 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Remo (Home) vs Mirassol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Remo
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 29 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Remo
1
Draws
1
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Remo vs Mirassol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Mirassol?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Remo have won 0, Mirassol have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Remo and Mirassol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 July 2026: Mirassol 2-1 Remo.
Who has won more matches between Remo and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Remo and Mirassol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Remo and Mirassol finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Banpará Baenão, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 1.18 xG and Mirassol 1.18 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Remo beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mirassol outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Mirassol attack 1.00 / defence 0.89, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Remo 36% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 36%, with Remo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.