Vitoria 2-0 Remo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitoria at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Remo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Remo make the trip to Estádio Manoel Barradas to face Vitoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vitoria have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Vitoria's home record at Estádio Manoel Barradas: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Manoel Barradas. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.58 xG and Remo 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.844 / defence 0.837 | Remo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.036. Data: 38 Vitoria games / 0 Remo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vitoria 57% | Draw 25% | Remo 17%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Remo 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Vitoria (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vitoria as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jan 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 57% | Draw 25% | Remo 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Vitoria 1.58 / Remo 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.844 / def 0.837 | Remo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Remo xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Remo kick off?
Vitoria vs Remo kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Remo?
Vitoria 2 - 0 Remo.
Where is Vitoria vs Remo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Remo part of?
Vitoria vs Remo is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 57% chance of winning, Remo a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Vitoria and Remo will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Remo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitoria and Remo in?
Vitoria (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Vitoria home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vitoria's attack rating (0.84) and Remo's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Remo's attack (0.85x) against Vitoria's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
57%
1.74
25%
3.97
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.31
0.74
Remo xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
28%
3.64
4%
27.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Vitoria and 0.74 for Remo, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Remo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Pre-Season
Remo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vitoria
0
Draws
1
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Remo?
From 2 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 1, Remo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Remo last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Remo 2-0 Vitoria.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Vitoria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Remo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitoria beat Remo 2-0 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.58 xG and Remo 0.74 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.84 / defence 0.84 against Remo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 57% | Draw 25% | Remo 17%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.