Remo 1-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Remo at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Remo face Internacional.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Remo welcome Internacional to Mangueirão in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off is Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 22:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Looking at their last 10 matches, Internacional stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Internacional away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.60 xG and Internacional 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.953 / defence 1.236 | Internacional attack 0.930 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.154. Remo's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Internacional's projected output up. Data: built from Remo's last 3 games and Internacional's last 41.
Result probabilities: Remo 44% | Draw 24% | Internacional 32%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.28 | Draw 4.10 | Internacional 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Remo are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Remo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Mangueirão • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 44% | Draw 24% | Internacional 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Remo 1.60 / Internacional 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.953 / def 1.236 | Internacional attack 0.930 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Remo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Internacional xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Remo vs Internacional FAQs
What time does Remo vs Internacional kick off?
Remo vs Internacional kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at Mangueirão.
What was the final score in Remo vs Internacional?
Remo 1 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Remo vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Mangueirão.
What competition is Remo vs Internacional part of?
Remo vs Internacional is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 44% chance of winning, Internacional a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Remo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Remo and Internacional will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Remo vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Remo's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Remo's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Remo's last 3 games and Internacional's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
44%
2.28
24%
4.10
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Remo xG
Total xG
2.92
1.33
Internacional xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Remo vs Internacional Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Remo and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Remo and 1.33 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Pre-Season
Internacional
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Remo (Home) vs Internacional (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Remo
Pre-Season
Internacional
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2026. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 17 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Remo
2
Draws
0
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Remo vs Internacional H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Internacional?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Remo have won 0, Internacional have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Internacional last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2026: Internacional 1-1 Remo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Remo and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Remo and Internacional finished level at 1-1 at Mangueirão, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 1.60 xG and Internacional 1.33 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Internacional attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 44% | Draw 24% | Internacional 32%, with Remo to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.