Remo 0-1 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Remo at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Remo face Cruzeiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Remo welcome Cruzeiro to Estádio Banpará Baenão in Serie A (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 25 April 2026 at 22:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Across their last 10 games, Cruzeiro have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Cruzeiro have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.78 xG and Cruzeiro 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.954 / defence 1.166 | Cruzeiro attack 0.937 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.034. Cruzeiro's defence rating of 1.252 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Remo's projected output up. Data: built from Remo's last 12 games and Cruzeiro's last 50.
Result probabilities: Remo 52% | Draw 25% | Cruzeiro 23%. Fair-value odds: Remo 1.92 | Draw 4.05 | Cruzeiro 4.29. Remo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Remo at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Remo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Estádio Banpará Baenão • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 52% | Draw 25% | Cruzeiro 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Remo 1.78 / Cruzeiro 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.954 / def 1.166 | Cruzeiro attack 0.937 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Remo (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Cruzeiro xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Remo vs Cruzeiro FAQs
What time does Remo vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Remo vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Estádio Banpará Baenão.
What was the final score in Remo vs Cruzeiro?
Remo 0 - 1 Cruzeiro.
Where is Remo vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Banpará Baenão.
What competition is Remo vs Cruzeiro part of?
Remo vs Cruzeiro is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 52% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Remo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Remo and Cruzeiro will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Remo vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Remo's attack rating (0.95) and Cruzeiro's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Remo's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Remo's last 12 games and Cruzeiro's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.05
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Remo xG
Total xG
2.91
1.13
Cruzeiro xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
4%
25.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Remo vs Cruzeiro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Remo and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Remo and 1.13 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Pre-Season
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Remo (Home) vs Cruzeiro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Remo
Pre-Season
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2026. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Remo
0
Draws
2
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Remo vs Cruzeiro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Cruzeiro?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Remo have won 0, Cruzeiro have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Cruzeiro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Cruzeiro 1-0 Remo.
Who has won more matches between Remo and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Cruzeiro defy the odds to beat Remo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Remo 0-1 at Estádio Banpará Baenão, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 1.78 xG and Cruzeiro 1.13 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Remo fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against Cruzeiro attack 0.94 / defence 1.25, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 52% | Draw 25% | Cruzeiro 23%, with Remo to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Cruzeiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.