Botafogo 1-2 Remo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Botafogo at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Remo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Remo make the trip to Olimpico Joao Havelange to face Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Botafogo (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Botafogo have posted 7W 2D 1L at Olimpico Joao Havelange — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 2.52 xG and Remo 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.297 / defence 1.340 | Remo attack 0.783 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.046. Botafogo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — their λ of 2.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Remo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Botafogo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Botafogo games / 13 Remo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 68% | Draw 17% | Remo 15%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Remo 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.52 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 68% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Olimpico Joao Havelange • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 68% | Draw 17% | Remo 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 61% | xG Botafogo 2.52 / Remo 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.297 / def 1.340 | Remo attack 0.783 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Remo xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Remo kick off?
Botafogo vs Remo kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Olimpico Joao Havelange.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Remo?
Botafogo 1 - 2 Remo.
Where is Botafogo vs Remo being played?
The match is being played at Olimpico Joao Havelange.
What competition is Botafogo vs Remo part of?
Botafogo vs Remo is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 68% chance of winning, Remo a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Botafogo and Remo will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Remo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Botafogo and Remo in?
Botafogo (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Botafogo home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Remo's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.52. Flip it around — Remo's attack (0.78x) against Botafogo's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 50/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.5%), 1-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
68%
1.46
17%
5.85
15%
6.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Botafogo xG
Total xG
3.62
1.10
Remo xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.85
17%
Draw
6.87
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
8%
12.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
1%
85.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.10 for Remo, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Remo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Pre-Season
Remo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Botafogo
0
Draws
1
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Remo?
From 1 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 0, Remo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Remo last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Botafogo 1-2 Remo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Remo?
Remo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Remo defy the odds to beat Botafogo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Remo beat Botafogo 1-2 at Olimpico Joao Havelange, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 2.52 xG and Remo 1.10 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Remo outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.30 / defence 1.34 against Remo attack 0.78 / defence 1.34, drawn from 50/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 68% | Draw 17% | Remo 15%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Remo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.