Cruzeiro 2-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cruzeiro at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cruzeiro vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cruzeiro host Gremio at Governador Magalhães Pinto in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cruzeiro — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Governador Magalhães Pinto, Cruzeiro have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Gremio have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cruzeiro at 1.70 PPG versus Gremio's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cruzeiro register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gremio in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Cruzeiro: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Gremio, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Cruzeiro winning.
The historical record gives Cruzeiro a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gremio in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 45% versus Gremio 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 45% | Gremio 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.58 xG and Gremio 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.086 / defence 1.020 | Gremio attack 0.870 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.028. Data: 49 Cruzeiro games / 49 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 52% | Draw 27% | Gremio 21%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Gremio 4.76. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cruzeiro at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cruzeiro 60% | Gremio 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 52% | Draw 27% | Gremio 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Cruzeiro 1.58 / Gremio 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.086 / def 1.020 | Gremio attack 0.870 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Gremio xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Gremio kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Gremio kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Cruzeiro 2 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Gremio part of?
Cruzeiro vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 52% chance of winning, Gremio a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cruzeiro and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Gremio?
Record (6 meetings): Cruzeiro 4W | Draws 1 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Gremio in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cruzeiro's attack at 1.09x the league average against Gremio's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.68
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.49
0.91
Gremio xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
23.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.91 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Cruzeiro have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 33W 23D 20L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Gremio's form line: 25W 19D 32L from 76 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.61 PPG, Gremio on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cruzeiro have posted 2.05 PPG from 38 outings (23W 9D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Cruzeiro are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gremio have gone 7W 12D 19L from 38 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Gremio in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 33W 23D 20L in their last 76 games (1.61 PPG), while Gremio have gone 25W 19D 32L in their last 76 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Gremio away?
Cruzeiro's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 2.05 PPG; Gremio away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Gremio in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cruzeiro go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Gremio won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Cruzeiro
1
Draws
1
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Gremio?
From 7 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 5, Gremio have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Cruzeiro 2-0 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Gremio?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 58%, Gremio 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cruzeiro) and 45% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gremio in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Cruzeiro's games and 55% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cruzeiro vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 45% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Gremio tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gremio in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cruzeiro cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Gremio 2-0 at Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.58 xG and Gremio 0.91 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gremio landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.09 / defence 1.02 against Gremio attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 52% | Draw 27% | Gremio 21%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 45%, Gremio 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.61 PPG, Gremio 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.