RB Bragantino 1-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Gremio meet at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 0L across 6 games at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this season.
Gremio have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 4L across 5 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. RB Bragantino's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Gremio's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 73% versus Gremio 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 64% | Gremio 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.54 xG and Gremio 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.249 / defence 1.358 | Gremio attack 0.677 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 0.895 / away 1.061. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 RB Bragantino games / 11 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 50% | Draw 26% | Gremio 24%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Gremio 4.17. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 83% | Gremio 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 50% | Draw 26% | Gremio 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG RB Bragantino 1.54 / Gremio 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.249 / def 1.358 | Gremio attack 0.677 / def 1.375 | league avg home 0.895 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Gremio xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Gremio kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Gremio kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
RB Bragantino 1 - 0 Gremio.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Gremio part of?
RB Bragantino vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 50% chance of winning, Gremio a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both RB Bragantino and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Gremio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Gremio in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Gremio (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.68x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 13/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.90
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.51
0.98
Gremio xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
5%
19.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.98 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 5W 5D 1L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio's form line: 1W 4D 6L from 11 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Bragantino are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gremio.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L). That actually lags their 1.82 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Gremio have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.55 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Gremio in 27%.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Gremio in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Gremio have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Gremio away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.40 PPG; Gremio away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gremio won 3-0 on 16 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
RB Bragantino
4
Draws
1
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 4, Gremio have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Gremio 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Gremio?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 80%, Gremio 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (RB Bragantino) and 20% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Gremio in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 20% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 20% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Gremio tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Gremio in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Gremio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Gremio 1-0 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.54 xG and Gremio 0.98 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gremio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.25 / defence 1.36 against Gremio attack 0.68 / defence 1.38, drawn from 13/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 50% | Draw 26% | Gremio 24%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 64%, Gremio 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.