Corinthians 1-3 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Neo Química Arena to face Corinthians in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Corinthians's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Corinthians at Neo Química Arena this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 home games — 0.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Flamengo (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Flamengo are 0.50 PPG clear of Corinthians in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 64% versus Flamengo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 36% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 0.76 xG and Flamengo 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.852 / defence 1.227 | Flamengo attack 1.193 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 0.890 / away 1.050. Data: 13 Corinthians games / 11 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 18% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 56%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Flamengo 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Corinthians 67% | Flamengo 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 18% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Corinthians 0.76 / Flamengo 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.852 / def 1.227 | Flamengo attack 1.193 / def 1.003 | league avg home 0.890 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Flamengo xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Flamengo kick off?
Corinthians vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Corinthians 1 - 3 Flamengo.
Where is Corinthians vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Flamengo part of?
Corinthians vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 18% chance of winning, Flamengo a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Corinthians and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Corinthians and Flamengo in?
Corinthians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Corinthians's attack rating (0.85) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.19x) against Corinthians's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 13/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
18%
5.41
26%
3.89
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.30
1.54
Flamengo xG
5.41
18%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
4%
25.15
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 15.4 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.54 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Corinthians have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 3W 5D 3L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo's form line: 7W 0D 4L from 11 games, 1.91 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Corinthians.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Corinthians have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Flamengo's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Corinthians are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 2.00 scored and 0.91 conceded. Flamengo's attacking output running into Corinthians's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Corinthians have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Flamengo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 3W 5D 3L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 7W 0D 4L in their last 11 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.25 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Flamengo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 4-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Corinthians
2
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 3, Flamengo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Corinthians 1-1 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 75%, Flamengo 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Corinthians) and 50% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Corinthians's recent matches and 25% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Corinthians's recent games and 50% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Flamengo tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Corinthians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Corinthians 1-3 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 0.76 xG and Flamengo 1.54 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Flamengo attack 1.19 / defence 1.00, drawn from 13/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 18% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 56%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 36%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Corinthians (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.