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Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat Sport Recife 3-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.60 xG and Sport Recife 0.79 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against Sport Recife attack 0.77 / defence 1.17, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 56% | Draw 25% | Sport Recife 19%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 44%, Sport Recife 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palmeiras's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sport Recife's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights