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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 21

Kick-off

Mon 25 Aug 2025

23:00

Venue

Allianz Parque

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Palmeiras Win

56%

Palmeiras

1.77

25%

Draw

4.00

19%

Sport Recife

5.39

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.6%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

11.7%

Home win

1 – 1

11.6%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.60

Palmeiras xG

Total xG

2.39

0.79

Sport Recife xG

56%
25%
19%
PalmeirasDrawSport Recife

1.77

56%

Home win

4.00

25%

Draw

5.39

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.29

56%

BTTS No

1.78

Clean Sheet

45%

Palmeiras

2.21

20%

Sport Recife

4.94

Win to Nil

26%

Palmeiras

3.92

4%

Sport Recife

26.62

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.2 7.3 2.9 0.8 0.2
1 14.6 11.6 4.6 1.2 0.2
2 11.7 9.3 3.7 1.0 0.2
3 6.2 4.9 2.0 0.5 0.1
4 2.5 2.0 0.8 0.2
5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.597
λ Away (xG) 0.794
Total xG 2.391
League avg home goals 1.281
League avg away goals 1.120
Palmeiras attack strength 1.067
Palmeiras defence strength 0.918
Sport Recife attack strength 0.773
Sport Recife defence strength 1.169
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 18