🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Palmeiras (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palmeiras face Sport Recife.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Sport Recife make the trip to Allianz Parque to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Monday 25 August 2025 at 23:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Palmeiras have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Allianz Parque, Palmeiras have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Sport Recife (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sport Recife away from home this season: 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Palmeiras. A 1.20 PPG lead over Sport Recife (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Palmeiras, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Sport Recife — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Palmeiras winning.

The historical record gives Palmeiras a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).

Sport Recife half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 50% versus Sport Recife 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 44% | Sport Recife 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.60 xG and Sport Recife 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.067 / defence 0.918 | Sport Recife attack 0.773 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.120. Data: 56 Palmeiras games / 18 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Palmeiras 56% | Draw 25% | Sport Recife 19%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Sport Recife 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 30% | Sport Recife 44% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights