Palmeiras 1-1 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Palmeiras face Cruzeiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nubank Parque plays host to Palmeiras versus Cruzeiro in Serie A (matchday 16). Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 01:00 UK time.
Form
Palmeiras (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Palmeiras have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palmeiras are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cruzeiro's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cruzeiro away from home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Palmeiras, 1.70 for Cruzeiro — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Palmeiras, 1 for Cruzeiro and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Palmeiras 0–0 Cruzeiro — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Cruzeiro — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 43% versus Cruzeiro 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 47% | Cruzeiro 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.74 xG and Cruzeiro 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.080 / defence 0.805 | Cruzeiro attack 0.996 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.087. Data: built from Palmeiras's last 53 games and Cruzeiro's last 53.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 58% | Draw 24% | Cruzeiro 19%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.73 | Draw 4.26 | Cruzeiro 5.37. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palmeiras 40% (last 10 home games) | Cruzeiro 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, matchday 16 | Venue: Nubank Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 58% | Draw 24% | Cruzeiro 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Palmeiras 1.74 / Cruzeiro 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.080 / def 0.805 | Cruzeiro attack 0.996 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Cruzeiro xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro FAQs
What time does Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Nubank Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Palmeiras 1 - 1 Cruzeiro.
Where is Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Nubank Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro part of?
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro is a Serie A fixture (matchday 16) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 58% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palmeiras and Cruzeiro will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.08x the league average against Cruzeiro's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (1.00x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Palmeiras's last 53 games and Cruzeiro's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.26
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.61
0.87
Cruzeiro xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
3%
30.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.87 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palmeiras come into this having played 76 games, going 45W 14D 17L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.61 PPG from 76 outings (33W 23D 20L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for Palmeiras against 1.61 for Cruzeiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Palmeiras's home form reads 24W 7D 7L across their last 38 home games, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 38 away games (10W 14D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cruzeiro's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.29 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Cruzeiro in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Palmeiras (Home) vs Cruzeiro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palmeiras
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro Form FAQs
What form are Palmeiras and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 33W 23D 20L in their last 76 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Cruzeiro away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.08 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Palmeiras and Cruzeiro, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
3
Draws
1
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cruzeiro?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Palmeiras have won 3, Cruzeiro have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Cruzeiro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Palmeiras 1-1 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Cruzeiro?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 37% (Palmeiras) and 32% (Cruzeiro) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Palmeiras) and 32% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 40%; Palmeiras have failed to score in 29% of games; Cruzeiro in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palmeiras and Cruzeiro matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 32% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palmeiras and Cruzeiro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Palmeiras's recent games and 32% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Cruzeiro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 63% of Cruzeiro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras and Cruzeiro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nubank Parque, Regular Season - 16, as Palmeiras and Cruzeiro drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.74 xG and Cruzeiro 0.87 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.08 / defence 0.81 against Cruzeiro attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 58% | Draw 24% | Cruzeiro 19%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 47%, Cruzeiro 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.96 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.