Atletico-MG 3-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico-MG at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico-MG vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MRV Arena plays host to Atletico-MG versus Mirassol in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico-MG have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Atletico-MG's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at MRV Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MRV Arena.
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mirassol away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Atletico-MG 1W, Mirassol 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Atletico-MG winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico-MG — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Mirassol — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico-MG 40% versus Mirassol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico-MG 40% | Mirassol 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico-MG 1.33 xG and Mirassol 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico-MG attack 0.958 / defence 1.149 | Mirassol attack 0.965 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.090. Data: 53 Atletico-MG games / 52 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico-MG 39% | Draw 27% | Mirassol 34%. Fair-value odds: Atletico-MG 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Mirassol 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico-MG are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Atletico-MG 40% | Mirassol 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico-MG vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: MRV Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico-MG 39% | Draw 27% | Mirassol 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Atletico-MG 1.33 / Mirassol 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico-MG attack 0.958 / def 1.149 | Mirassol attack 0.965 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Atletico-MG xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Mirassol xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico-MG vs Mirassol kick off?
Atletico-MG vs Mirassol kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at MRV Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
Atletico-MG 3 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Atletico-MG vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at MRV Arena.
What competition is Atletico-MG vs Mirassol part of?
Atletico-MG vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Atletico-MG a 39% chance of winning, Mirassol a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Atletico-MG and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico-MG vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Mirassol?
Record (2 meetings): Atletico-MG 1W | Draws 1 | Mirassol 0W.
What form are Atletico-MG and Mirassol in?
Atletico-MG (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atletico-MG's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Mirassol's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.96x) against Atletico-MG's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.74
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Atletico-MG xG
Total xG
2.54
1.21
Mirassol xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Atletico-MG and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 1.21 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Atletico-MG have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 12W 12D 14L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Mirassol's form line: 18W 13D 7L from 38 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Mirassol are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atletico-MG.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atletico-MG have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (9W 8D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Atletico-MG are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 6W 6D 7L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico-MG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico-MG are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.66 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico-MG
Current Season
Mirassol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico-MG and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Atletico-MG have gone 12W 12D 14L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico-MG at home or Mirassol away?
Atletico-MG's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico-MG at home: 1.84 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Atletico-MG or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Mirassol in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Atletico-MG go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico-MG have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mirassol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Atletico-MG
1
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Atletico-MG have won 2, Mirassol have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico-MG and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Atletico-MG 3-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Atletico-MG and Mirassol?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico-MG see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico-MG 47%, Mirassol 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Atletico-MG) and 32% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Mirassol in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico-MG home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico-MG play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Atletico-MG's recent matches and 47% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico-MG vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Atletico-MG's recent games and 32% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico-MG and Mirassol tend to score early?
Atletico-MG have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico-MG cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mirassol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Mirassol 3-1 at MRV Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.33 xG and Mirassol 1.21 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atletico-MG beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Mirassol attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 39% | Draw 27% | Mirassol 34%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 40%, Mirassol 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico-MG's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Atletico-MG winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Mirassol (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.