Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio do Maracanã to face Flamengo in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Estádio do Maracanã this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Flamengo are significantly better at Estádio do Maracanã than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Flamengo against 1.50 for Palmeiras. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Flamengo, who have won 4 of the last 9 meetings against Palmeiras — a 5D 0W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with Flamengo winning.
The historical record gives Flamengo a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Flamengo — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 55% versus Palmeiras 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 51% | Palmeiras 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.32 xG and Palmeiras 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.203 / defence 0.813 | Palmeiras attack 1.108 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.095. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Flamengo games / 54 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 44% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 27%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Palmeiras 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 50% | Palmeiras 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 44% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Flamengo 1.32 / Palmeiras 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.203 / def 0.813 | Palmeiras attack 1.108 / def 0.739 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Palmeiras xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Flamengo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Flamengo 0 - 3 Palmeiras.
Where is Flamengo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Palmeiras part of?
Flamengo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 44% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Flamengo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
Record (9 meetings): Flamengo 4W | Draws 5 | Palmeiras 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Palmeiras in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.20x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.11x) against Flamengo's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.45
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.30
0.99
Palmeiras xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.99 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Flamengo come into this having played 76 games, going 43W 20D 13L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.96 PPG from 76 outings (45W 14D 17L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for Flamengo against 1.96 for Palmeiras. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Flamengo's home form reads 25W 10D 3L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.84 points per game from 38 outings (21W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.66 scored and 0.87 conceded. Flamengo's scoring rate against Palmeiras's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Palmeiras in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Palmeiras away?
Flamengo's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.24 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Flamengo
5
Draws
1
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Palmeiras have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 50%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Palmeiras in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Flamengo's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Flamengo 0-3 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.32 xG and Palmeiras 0.99 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Palmeiras outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.20 / defence 0.81 against Palmeiras attack 1.11 / defence 0.74, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 44% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 27%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 51%, Palmeiras 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.96 PPG, Palmeiras 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palmeiras win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.