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Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Sport Recife 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Sport Recife 1-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.96 xG and Sport Recife 0.88 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mirassol fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sport Recife landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.18 / defence 1.30 against Sport Recife attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 62% | Draw 23% | Sport Recife 15%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights