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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mirassol host Sport Recife at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 June 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.96 xG and Sport Recife 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.177 / defence 1.301 | Sport Recife attack 0.788 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 0.856. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Mirassol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Mirassol games / 10 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 62% | Draw 23% | Sport Recife 15%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Sport Recife 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Form data is not yet available for either side
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 62% | Draw 23% | Sport Recife 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Mirassol 1.96 / Sport Recife 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.177 / def 1.301 | Sport Recife attack 0.788 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.314 / away 0.856 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (62%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sport Recife xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Sport Recife kick off?
Mirassol vs Sport Recife kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Sport Recife?
Mirassol 1 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Mirassol vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Sport Recife part of?
Mirassol vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 62% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mirassol and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Sport Recife?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Mirassol and Sport Recife in?
• Form data is not yet available for either side
What do the betting odds say about Mirassol vs Sport Recife?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture