🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Mirassol run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Santos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Santos 3-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.45 xG and Santos 0.97 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Santos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against Santos attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 47% | Draw 28% | Santos 25%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 42%, Santos 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Santos's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.50 PPG, Santos 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights