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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Mirassol and Santos meet at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 July 2025 at 22:30 UTC.

Current Form

Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol have gone 3W 2D 0L this season (5 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.

Santos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Santos's away record: 2W 0D 5L from 7 road trips in Serie A this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Trading & In-Play

Mirassol — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Santos — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 75% versus Santos 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mirassol 42% | Santos 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.45 xG and Santos 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.050 / defence 1.155 | Santos attack 0.911 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 0.926. Data: 12 Mirassol games / 13 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mirassol 47% | Draw 28% | Santos 25%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Santos 4.00. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Mirassol 80% | Santos 43% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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