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Mirassol cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juventude.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Juventude 2-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 2.75 xG and Juventude 0.94 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juventude landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.35 / defence 1.05 against Juventude attack 0.81 / defence 1.50, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 75% | Draw 15% | Juventude 10%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 46%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Juventude's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Mirassol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights