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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Mirassol run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gremio.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Gremio 4-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.19 xG and Gremio 0.93 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Gremio attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 38% | Draw 37% | Gremio 25%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights