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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Wed 16 Apr 2025

23:00

Venue

Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Mirassol Win

38%

Mirassol

2.65

37%

Draw

2.67

25%

Gremio

4.02

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.3%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.3%

Draw

0 – 0

12.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.19

Mirassol xG

Total xG

2.12

0.93

Gremio xG

38%
37%
25%
MirassolDrawGremio

2.65

38%

Home win

2.67

37%

Draw

4.02

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

62%

Over 1.5

1.61

38%

Under 1.5

2.63

36%

Over 2.5

2.78

64%

Under 2.5

1.56

16%

Over 3.5

6.25

84%

Under 3.5

1.19

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

46%

BTTS Yes

2.17

54%

BTTS No

1.86

Clean Sheet

39%

Mirassol

2.54

31%

Gremio

3.27

Win to Nil

15%

Mirassol

6.74

8%

Gremio

13.16

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.0 11.2 5.2 1.6 0.4 0.1
1 14.3 13.3 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.1
2 8.4 7.9 3.7 1.1 0.3
3 3.3 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1
4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.185
λ Away (xG) 0.933
Total xG 2.118
League avg home goals 1.390
League avg away goals 0.933
Mirassol attack strength 0.826
Mirassol defence strength 1.131
Gremio attack strength 0.884
Gremio defence strength 1.032
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 3 / 41