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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mirassol and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol and Fortaleza EC finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.27 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 37% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 28%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights