Mirassol 1-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Fortaleza EC in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Fortaleza EC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fortaleza EC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.27 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.074 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.881. Data: 1 Mirassol games / 39 Fortaleza EC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mirassol 37% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 28%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Fortaleza EC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 37% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Mirassol 1.27 / Fortaleza EC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.074 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.361 / away 0.881 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Mirassol 1 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 37% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mirassol and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mirassol and Fortaleza EC in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Fortaleza EC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 0.86x the league average against Fortaleza EC's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (1.07x) against Mirassol's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
37%
2.70
35%
2.85
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.36
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.09 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Pre-Season
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mirassol
1
Draws
0
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Fortaleza EC?
From 2 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 1, Fortaleza EC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Fortaleza EC 0-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Fortaleza EC?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Mirassol and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol and Fortaleza EC finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.27 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 37% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 28%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.