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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Fortaleza EC in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Fortaleza EC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fortaleza EC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.27 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.074 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.881. Data: 1 Mirassol games / 39 Fortaleza EC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mirassol 37% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 28%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Fortaleza EC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W • Fortaleza EC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | CS 1
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 37% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Mirassol 1.27 / Fortaleza EC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.074 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.361 / away 0.881 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Mirassol 1 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 37% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mirassol and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Fortaleza EC?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Mirassol and Fortaleza EC in?
• Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W • Fortaleza EC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | CS 1
What do the betting odds say about Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture