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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mirassol and Flamengo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 38, as Mirassol and Flamengo drew 3-3 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.49 xG and Flamengo 1.19 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Flamengo outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.24 / defence 0.85 against Flamengo attack 1.36 / defence 0.81, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 44% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 30%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 46%, Flamengo 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Flamengo's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.78 PPG, Flamengo 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights