Mirassol 3-3 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to take on Mirassol. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025, 21:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mirassol's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mirassol 2.00 PPG, Flamengo 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mirassol register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Flamengo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mirassol, 1 for Flamengo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mirassol in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 57% versus Flamengo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 46% | Flamengo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.49 xG and Flamengo 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.239 / defence 0.854 | Flamengo attack 1.365 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.019. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Mirassol games / 75 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 44% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 30%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Flamengo 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mirassol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 60% | Flamengo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 44% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Mirassol 1.49 / Flamengo 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.239 / def 0.854 | Flamengo attack 1.365 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Flamengo xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Flamengo kick off?
Mirassol vs Flamengo kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Mirassol 3 - 3 Flamengo.
Where is Mirassol vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Flamengo part of?
Mirassol vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 44% chance of winning, Flamengo a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mirassol and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Mirassol and Flamengo in?
Mirassol (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mirassol's attack rating (1.24) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.90
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.67
1.19
Flamengo xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.19 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Mirassol have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 18W 12D 7L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 23W 9D 5L from 37 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mirassol on 1.78 PPG, Flamengo on 2.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mirassol have posted 2.33 PPG from 18 outings (12W 6D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 9W 4D 5L from 18 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mirassol are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 2.03 scored and 0.65 conceded. Flamengo's attacking output running into Mirassol's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Flamengo in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 18W 12D 7L in their last 37 games (1.78 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 23W 9D 5L in their last 37 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Flamengo away?
Mirassol's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.33 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Flamengo in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2026, when Flamengo won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mirassol's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mirassol
1
Draws
3
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Flamengo?
From 4 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Flamengo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 67%, Flamengo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Mirassol) and 50% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mirassol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mirassol's games and 56% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Mirassol's matches and 50% of Flamengo's.
Do Mirassol and Flamengo tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol and Flamengo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 38, as Mirassol and Flamengo drew 3-3 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.49 xG and Flamengo 1.19 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Flamengo outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.24 / defence 0.85 against Flamengo attack 1.36 / defence 0.81, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 44% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 30%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 46%, Flamengo 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.78 PPG, Flamengo 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.